Should Pakistan Get Militarily Involved in the Yemeni Conflict? Professor Dr Shahida Wizarat*

Policies unleashed by rich industrialized countries post 9/11 are pushing countries once euphemistically termed as developing countries into junkyards of depilated houses, infrastructure, short of basic amenities like power, food and water. Death and destruction has become the norm and the preoccupation of governments in these countries is focused totally on fighting terror, instead of bringing economic development. Ethnic, sectarian and ideological cards are helping to divide the populations, leading to fragmentation, breakdown of established order and dismemberment of these countries. And this conflict is spreading like wild fire across Asia, Africa and the Middle East. Governments in these countries are either incompetent or corrupt or both to comprehend the situation and bring things under control. And Pakistan is no exception. Actions taken by the Mushraff government post 9/11 have pushed Pakistan into a quagmire from which it is struggling hard to get out, but the moment things start coming under control, fresh impetus in the form of “do more” or enlarging the conflict and digging us deeper into the quagmire are thrust upon us. Although Mushraff’s policies were criticized by civilian politicians, they intensified the same policies when they came to power, whether it was the PPP or the PML governments. Western powers are surprised at our resilience, but their resolve to fragment and dismember us is just as resolute and stubborn as our resolve to survive and prevent fragmentation and dismemberment.

In marked contrast to our plight the rich countries are developed, peaceful and have integrated their economies, political structures and military establishments. Examples of economic, political and military integration are the London Club, the Paris Club, the European Union (EU), OECD, G8, NATO, etc. These are the former colonial powers and the bulk of the countries in Asia, Africa, Middle East, Caribbean, etc are the former colonies. A core and periphery relationship existed between them, which entailed that these colonies produced agricultural commodities and exported them to the colonial masters, where they were processed and converted into manufactured goods and exported back to the colonies. This “Unequal Exchange” articulated so aptly by Emmanuel between the colonies and the colonial masters continues today between the developed countries and the less developed countries (LDCs). And today the financial and trade liberalization policies being pushed by the World Bank and the IMF on LDCs are adversely impacting on industrial, service sector and overall GDP growth rate in Pakistan and many other LDCs as corroborated by me, Adnan Hye and other researchers.

Infact, the situation is deteriorating and diverging in the LDCs instead of converging towards the life styles and living standards of the rich countries. Some hidden forces are taking the LDCs in a backward direction towards the colonial world order that ended soon after the Second World War ended. World powers reluctantly agreed to the decolonization process due to the bipolar world order that emerged post World War II. But the moment the world order became unipolar, US started working fervently to take us towards the colonial world order.

Summing up we observe that while the political and military policies are causing fragmentation and dismemberment of LDCs, economic policies are pushing these countries into agricultural production. This is precisely the world order that existed prior to 1945 when small colonial entities produced agricultural products and exported them to the colonial masters for processing.

It is against this back ground that we analyze the build up of the present crisis between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Sectarian card is being used by those that are trying to pit the Sunnis against the Shias. The two sects believe in one Allah, the Quran and the Prophet Muhammad, i.e. the substance is the same in both the sects, only the rituals are different. Are the rituals so important that we should be cutting each others throats! In fact the powers that are pitting Shias and Sunnis against each other are substantively more diverse with the Muslims in terms of the unity of the Creator, the Holy book and the Prophets (Muslims recognize Hazrat Essa and Hazrat Musa as prophets only, and the former not as a Holy Spirit).

So what benefits are the rich countries reaping from the situation prevailing in the LDCs? The positive effect of conflict on rich western economies is on account of expansion of GDP in armament producing economies. According to my recent study on natural resources, conflict and growth using panel data for the period 1980-2009, when world conflict increases by 1 percent, GDP in the OECD countries increases by 7.7 percent, while it declines by 3.8 percent in the LDCs. The positive and highly significant contribution of the conflict coefficient is a finding of great importance. It confirms the Marxist view that death and destruction in the poor countries brings prosperity to the rich countries. It is interesting to note that while the conflict coefficient has a positive impact on output growth in the DCs, it has a negative impact in the LDCs. This means that conflict resulting in deaths, destruction of infrastructure, causing instability and uncertainty causes decline in investment and output in the LDCs. Panel data estimates of the conflict model vindicates the view that the tremendous escalation in conflict the world over is inspired by the greed of the rich countries to acquire the oil, gas, coal, ores and metal reserves of the LDCs, which is fuelling global conflict. The industrial military complex in fuelling world conflict very forcefully as revealed by the very large coefficient on arms export by DCs, which is highly significant. The results of my research are corroborated by the loot and plunder of lithium in Afghanistan and oil in Iraq by NATO troops in these two countries behind the smoke screen of the ‘war against terror.’

In an article published in December 2001 I had stated:
“The same is discernible from CIA’s ‘Global Trends 2015’ launched in December 2000. Infact, the catastrophe in New York and the staging of episode II in this part of the World is the practical implementation of the Report.
The Report had stated that the writ of the Government of Pakistan would be limited to Punjab and Sindh only, religious fundamentalism was stated as the major factor that will tear the country apart.”

And Andrew Gavin Marshall in a 2011 study says “In January of 2009, a Pentagon report analyzing geopolitical trends of significance to the US military over the next 25 years, reported that Pakistan could face a “rapid and sudden” collapse. It stated: “Some forms of collapse in Pakistan would carry with it the likelihood of a sustained violent and bloody civil and sectarian war, an even bigger haven for violent extremists, and the question of what would happen to its nuclear weapons,” and as such, “that ‘perfect storm’ of uncertainty alone might require the engagement of U.S. and coalition forces into a situation of immense complexity and danger.”

And Marshall goes on to say “American strategy of destabilization is being undertaken in Pakistan, including the waging of a secret war and the expansion of the Afghan war into Pakistani territory. In short, the military and intelligence projections for Pakistan over the next several years —————- that predict a destabilized Pakistan and potential collapse are now undertaking strategies aimed at achieving those outcomes.”
I think world powers have realized that we are on the verge of bringing the law and order situation under control. Though we paid a very heave price and continue to pay a heavy price for our involvement in the war, but we are beginning to emerge intact. A need is therefore being felt to expand conflict in order to achieve the outcomes mentioned in Global Trends 2015.

Pakistan will face very serious repercussions as a result of its involvement in the Iran-Saudi conflict. Iranian military invasion of Baluchistan is a likely outcome as Iran will not be able to strike the US and UK several thousand miles away. This at a time of heightened sectarian turmoil from the Shia population as they would feel persecuted and India’s traditional animosity towards Pakistan, might result in taking the present turmoil towards a climax in 2015 as predicted in Global Trends 2015. And any attempt to use the nuclear option by us in our self defense will result in the scenario discussed earlier by Marshall. The US clout in the UN will be used to declare us an irresponsible nuclear power and authorize seizure of our nuclear assets.

Pakistan’s involvement in the conflict will also negate the National Action Plan (NAP) being under taken to bring peace in Pakistan, as it will escalate sectarian conflict. So while our involvement in the Saudi-Iranian conflict will increase sectarian conflict, NAP will be punishing the perpetuators of sectarian conflict. So the government will be both fueling sectarian conflict and punishing the perpetuators of this conflict ! In other words, the Government of Pakistan will be both hunting with the hound and running with the hare !!

Any irresponsible involvement in the Saudi- Iran conflict will facilitate the world powers to achieve the outcomes predicted in the Global Trends 2015 and the establishment of a world order consisting of small fragmented states, producing agricultural commodities, devoid of nuclear power, whose natural resources would be under the permanent control of rich countries. What should Pakistan do to preempt following into this trap? The most important step would be to minimize the present conflict and not allow it to escalate. And most importantly, we should not get involved in the Saudi-Iran conflict. Instead, we should offer our conflict resolution services to both the countries and try to prevent any further loss of life in this conflict. This will not only save us from the catastrophe discussed above, but will also give us the stature that is commensurate with our power and status. If, however, Pakistan starts mulling as a result of pressure from world powers, Malaysian and Indonesian governments are more appropriate for the leadership of the muslim world on account of their honesty, sincerity, competence and leadership qualities. They should take on the leadership of the Muslim world and lead us out of this horrendous situation!

*Director Research, HOD Economics and Chief Editor Pakistan Business Review, IOBM